Ukraine: Conflict at the crossroads of Europe and Russia (2023) (2023)

Introduction

Ukraine has long played an important, if sometimes overlooked, role in the global security order. Today, the country is at the forefront of a renewed great-power rivalry that many analysts say will dominate international relations for decades to come.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a dramatic escalation in the eight-year conflict between the countries and a historic turning point for European security. After six months, many defense and foreign policy analysts called the war a major strategic mistake by Russian President Vladimir Putin, endangering his longtime rule.

Many observers see little prospect of a diplomatic resolution in the coming months, instead acknowledging the potential for a dangerous escalation, which could include Russia's use of a nuclear weapon. The war accelerated Ukraine's effort to join Western political blocs, including the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Why is Ukraine a geopolitical hotspot?

Ukraine became a battleground in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and began arming and encouraging separatists in the southeastern Donbass region. Russia's seizure of Crimea marked the first time since World War II that a European state had annexed the territory of another. More than 14,000 people were killed in fighting in the Donbass between 2014 and 2021, the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Balkan wars of the 1990s. The hostilities marked a clear shift in the global security environment from a unipolar period of US domain to one defined byrenewed competition between the great powers[PDF].

In February 2022, Russia embarked on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with the goal of overthrowing the Western-aligned government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

What are Russia's general interests in Ukraine?

Russia has deep cultural, economic and political ties to Ukraine, and in many ways Ukraine is central to Russia's identity and vision in the world.

Family ties. Russia and Ukraine have strong family ties that go back centuries. kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, is sometimes referred to as "the mother of Russian cities", equal in terms of cultural influence to Moscow and Saint Petersburg. It was in kyiv in the 8th and 9th centuries that Christianity was brought from Byzantium to the Slavic peoples. And it was Christianity that anchored Kievan Rus, the ancient Slavic state from which modern Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians hail.

Russian diaspora. Approximately eight million ethnic Russians lived in Ukraine in 2001, according to a census conducted that year, mainly in the south and east. Moscow claimed a duty to protect these people as a pretext for its actions in Crimea and Donbass in 2014.

superpower image. After the Soviet collapse, many Russian politicians saw Ukraine's divorce as a mistake of history and a threat to Russia's position as a great power. Losing permanent control of Ukraine and placing it in the Western orbit would be seen by many as a major blow to Russia's international prestige. In 2022, Putin launched the escalation of the war with Ukraine as part of a broader fight against Western powers that he says are intent on destroying Russia.

Crimea. Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 to strengthen "fraternal ties between the Ukrainian and Russian peoples." However, since the fall of the union, many Russian nationalists in Russia and Crimea have longed for the return of the peninsula. The city of Sevastopol is the home port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, thedominant maritime forcein the region.

Replacement. Russia was for a long time the biggest power in Ukrainebusiness partner, although that link has declined dramatically in recent years. china eventuallyovertook Russia in tradewith Ukraine. Before invading Crimea, Russia hoped to lure Ukraine into its single market, the Eurasian Economic Union, which now includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Energy. Russia has relied on Ukrainian pipelines to pump its gas to customers in Central and Eastern Europe for decades, paying Kiev billions of dollars a year in transit fees. The flow of Russian gas through Ukrainecontinued at the end of 2022despite the hostilities between the two countries, but volumes were reduced and the pipeline remained at serious risk.

political influence. Russia wanted to preserve its political influence in Ukraine and throughout the former Soviet Union, particularly after its preferred candidate for the Ukrainian presidency in 2004, Viktor Yanukovych, lost to a reformist competitor as part of the popular Orange Revolution movement. This blow to Russia's interests in Ukraine came after a similar electoral defeat for the Kremlin in Georgia in 2003, known as the Rose Revolution, and was followed by another, the Tulip Revolution, in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. Yanukovych he later became Ukraine's president in 2010 amid voter discontent with the Orange government.

What triggered Russia's moves in Crimea and Donbass in 2014?

It was Ukraine's ties to the EU that raised tensions with Russia in 2013-14. In late 2013, President Yanukovych, acting under pressure from his supporters in Moscow, scrapped plans to formalize a closer economic relationship with the EU. At the same time, Russia was pressuring Ukraine to join the still unformed EAEU. Many Ukrainians perceived Yanukovych's decision as a betrayal of a deeply corrupt and incompetent government, and it sparked nationwide protests known as Euromaidan.

Putin framed the turmoil that followed Euromaidan, which forced Yanukovych from power, as a Western-backed "fascist coup" that endangered the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea. (Western leaders dismissed this as baseless Soviet-era propaganda.) In response, Putin ordered a secret invasion of the Crimea that he later justified as a rescue operation. "There is a limit to everything. And with Ukraine, our Western partners have crossed the line," Putin said inone direction March 2014formalizing the annexation.

Putin employed a similar narrative to justify his support for separatists in southeastern Ukraine, another region that is home to large numbers of Russian-speaking and ethnic Russians. He referred to the area as Novorossiya (New Russia), a term that dates back to 18th-century imperial Russia. Armed Russian provocateurs, including some agents of the Russian security services, are believed to have played a central role in inciting the rebellion of anti-Euromaidan separatist movements in the region. Unlike Crimea, however, Russia continued to officially deny involvement in the Donbass conflict until it launched its broader invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Why did Russia launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

Some Western analysts see the 2022 invasion of Russia as the culmination of the Kremlin's growing resentment of NATO's post-Cold War expansion into the former Soviet sphere of influence. Russian leaders, including Putin, claimed that the United States and NATOthey repeatedly violated the promises they madein the early 1990s so as not to widen the alliance in the former Soviet bloc. They see NATO enlargement during this tumultuous period for Russia as a humiliating imposition about which they can do little but observe.

In the weeks leading up to the 2008 NATO summit, President Vladimir Putinwarned US diplomatsthat moves to bring Ukraine into the alliance "would be a hostile act towards Russia." Months later, Russia went to war with Georgia, apparently demonstrating Putin's willingness to use force to protect his country's interests. (Some independent observersfaulty georgiafor starting the so-called August War, but blamed Russia for the escalation of hostilities).

Despite not being a member, Ukraine increased its ties to NATO in the years leading up to the 2022 invasion. Ukraine held annual military exercises with the alliance, and in 2020 became one of six Enhanced Opportunity, Special Status partners. for those closest to the block. non-member allies. Furthermore, kyiv has stated its goal of eventually gaining full NATO membership.

In the weeks leading up to its invasion, Russia madeseveral important security demandsof the United States and NATO, including to stop expanding the alliance, seek Russia's consent to certain NATO deployments, and withdraw US nuclear weapons from Europe. Alliance leaders responded that they were open to the new diplomacy but were unwilling to discuss closing NATO's doors to new members.

“While in the United States we talk about acrisis in ukraineFrom the Russian point of view, this is a crisis in the European security architecture," said Thomas Graham of the CFR.gun control todayin February 2022. "And the fundamental issue they want to negotiate is the revision of the European security architecture as it stands now towards something more favorable to Russian interests."

Other experts said perhaps the most important motivating factor for Putin was his fear that Ukraine would continue to transform into a modern Western-style democracy that would inevitably undermine his autocratic rule in Russia and dash his hopes of rebuilding a Russian-led sphere. . of influence in Eastern Europe. "[Putin] wantsdestabilize Ukrainescare Ukraine," writes historian Anne Applebaum inAtlantic. “He wants Ukrainian democracy to fail. He wants the Ukrainian economy to collapse. He wants foreign investors to flee. He wants his neighbors, in Belarus, Kazakhstan, even Poland and Hungary, to doubt that democracy is viable, in the long term, also in their countries”.

What are Russia's goals in Ukraine?

Putin's Russia has been described as a revengeful power, eager to regain its former power and prestige. "Putin's goal has always been to restore Russia to the status of a great power in northern Eurasia," writes Gerard Toal, a professor of international relations at Virginia Tech, in his booknear the outside. "The ultimate goal was not to recreate the Soviet Union, but to make Russia great again."

By seizing Crimea in 2014, Russia consolidated its control of a strategic position on the Black Sea. With a larger and more sophisticated military presence there, Russia can project its power deeper into the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa, where it has traditionally had limited influence. Some analysts argue that Western powers failed to impose significant costs on Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea, which they say only increased Putin's willingness to use military force in pursuit of his foreign policy goals. Until its invasion in 2022, Russia's strategic gains in Donbass were more fragile. Supporting the separatists has, at least temporarily, increased their bargaining power vis-à-vis Ukraine.

In July 2021, Putin wrote what many Western foreign policy experts considered an ominous article.explaining his controversial viewsof the shared history between Russia and Ukraine. Among other comments, Putin described the Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" effectively occupying "the same historical and spiritual space."

Over the course of that year, Russia rallied tens of thousands of troops along the border with Ukraine and later in ally Belarus under the auspices of military exercises. In February 2022, Putin ordered a full-scale invasion, bringing a force of around 200,000 soldiers into Ukrainian territory from the south (Crimea), east (Russia) and north (Belarus), in an attempt to seize the major cities, including the capital, Kiev, and overthrow the government. Putin said the overall goals were to "denazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine.

What have been the US priorities in Ukraine?

In the immediate aftermath of the Soviet collapse, Washington's priority was to pressure Ukraine - along with Belarus and Kazakhstan - to give up its nuclear arsenal so that only Russia would retain the former union's weapons. At the same time, the United States has been quick to shore up Russia's fragile democracy. Some prominent observers at the time felt that the United States was premature in its courtship of Russia and that it should have done more to promote geopolitical pluralism in the rest of the former Soviet Union.

Former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, inExternal relationshipsin early 1994 he described a healthy and stable Ukraine as acritical counterbalance to Russiaand the core of what he stood for should be America's new grand strategy after the Cold War. “It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine bribed and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire,” he wrote. In the months after Brzezinski's article was published, the US, UK and Russia pledged in a Budapest referendum to respect Ukraine's independence and sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine's becoming a non-nuclear state.

Twenty years later, when Russian forces seized Crimea, restoring and strengthening Ukraine's sovereignty re-emerged as a top US and EU foreign policy priority. After the 2022 invasion, the US and NATO allies dramatically increased defensive, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, as well as increased their sanctions against Russia. However, Western leaders have been careful to avoid actions they believe will drive their countries into war or escalate it, which could, in extreme cases, pose a nuclear threat.

Timeline

Ukraine's struggle for independence in the shadow of Russia

1991-2022

See the timeline

What are the US and EU policies on Ukraine?

The United States remains committed to restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. It does not recognize Russia's claims to Crimea or other regions illegally annexed by Russia. Before the 2022 invasion, the United States supported a solution to the Donbass conflict throughthe minsk agreements[PDF].

Western powers and their partners have taken many steps to increase aid to Ukraine and punish Russia for its 2022 offensive.$17 billion in security assistance[PDF], including advanced rocket and missile systems, helicopters, and lethal drones. Several NATO allies are providing similar security assistance.

Meanwhile, theinternational sanctionsin Russia they have spread widely, covering much of its financial, energy, defense and technology sectors and targeting the assets of wealthy oligarchs and others. The US and some European governments also barred some Russian banks from participating in the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, a financial messaging system known as SWIFT; placed restrictions on Russia's ability to access its vast foreign reserves; and blacklisted Russia's central bank. In addition, many influential Western companies have closed or suspended their operations in Russia. The Group of Eight, now known as thegroup of seven, suspended Russia from its ranks indefinitely in 2014.

The invasion also cost Russia the long-awaited Nord Stream 2 pipeline after Germany withheld its regulatory approval in February. Many critics, including US and Ukrainian officials, opposed the pipeline during its development, claiming it would give Russia greater political influence over Ukraine and the European gas market. In August, Russia indefinitely suspended operations of the Nord Stream 1, which supplied the European market with up to a third of its natural gas.

What do the Ukrainians want?

Russia's aggression in recent years has galvanized public support for Western tendencies in Ukraine. Following Euromaidan, the country elected billionaire businessman Petro Poroshenko, a staunch supporter of EU-NATO integration, as president. In 2019, Zelensky defeated Poroshenko in a sign of the public's deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment and its battle against corruption and the oligarchic economy.